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Time Planning

In what time frame are we going to execute the project? What milestones are there?

The Time Planning Process deals with estimating the amount of work needed to complete the work packages and activities that were defined in the work breakdown structure.

Input

  • Project Charter (in.)
  • Work Breakdown Structure (pl.)
  • Scope Statement (pl.)
  • Integrated Project Plan (co.)

Process Steps

1. Collecting and reviewing information for the development of the time schedule

Planned content from nearly all knowledge areas goes into the project plan that is developed based on the work breakdown structure. Therefore covering the content precisely and in its entirety is of high importance here.

2. Determining and adding milestones and quality gates

Milestones are project results, which have neither costs, nor running time. They mark the completion of key deliverables. Quality gates include reviewing the delivered results, evaluating existing risks and problems as well as the project progress.

3. Determining and assigning dependencies

Dependencies of work packages and activities need to be identified. Subsequently the dependencies need to be assigned. This step aims at developing a reliable time schedule as well as identifying the critical path.

4. Developing a method to determine total amount of effort

This involves developing a method to estimate the total amount of time and effort needed to complete a given task.

5. Optimizing time schedule

The optimization of the time schedule is an iterative process. The precision and detail of the time schedule depends on the amount of information that is available during planning. The more information is available, the more detailed and precise the plan will become. To be able to react to unplanned events, buffers should always be included in the time schedule.

6. Developing a process to track the actual amount of performed man hours

As a rule either the project manager or the project management office (PMO) is responsible for documenting the data relating to the necessary effort that tasks require to be completed. Persons that deliver the information, are usually team members or team leader representatives.

Output

  • Time Schedule (pl.)

Please also see knowledge area “Integrated Planning” for overall project planning.

Dependencies of Activities

There are three types of interrelations or dependencies, that determine the order of activities:

  • Mandatory dependencies:
    • Dependencies that are inherent to the work that needs to be done and cannot be changed. E.g. if you build a house, you must first construct the walls before adding the roof (i.e. ‘hard’ logic).
  • Discretionary Dependencies:
    • Dependencies that are defined at the discretion of the project team (and may also be omitted). They are usually defined according to the following criteria:
      • “Best practices” within a certain field of application.
      • A singular aspect of the project that requires a certain sequence of activities, even though there are alternative sequences, which are just as valid (i.e. “preferred” or “soft” logic).
  • External Dependencies
    • All dependencies that describe a relation between project activities and activities outside the project. For example the testing period of a software project may depend on the delivery of hardware by an external supplier.

Time Plan

Arrow Procedure Technique

  • The time schedule is depicted in shape of a precedence diagram method. Boxes represent activities. These are connected with arrows, in order to show the dependencies.
  • Through this, four kinds of dependencies can be distinguished:
    • End-Start: The completion of the subsequent activity, depends on the beginning of the prior activity.
    • End-End: The completion of the subsequent activity, depends on the completion of the prior activity.
    • Start-Start: The beginning of the subsequent activity, depends on the beginning of the prior activity.
    • Start-End: The beginning of the subsequent activity, depends on the completion of the prior activity.

Critical Path

Critical Path Method

  • The critical path is a set of activities, which determines the total running time of the project. Depending on the duration and work sequence logic, there can be more than one critical path.
  • The critical path method is – like the arrow procedure technique – a precedence diagram method. Using a “forwards” and “backwards” analysis, it calculates respectively the theoretically earliest and latest start and end dates for all project activities.
  • The difference between the earliest and latest dates is called the total project buffer. The critical path has accordingly either a negative total project buffer time, or a value of zero.

Total Effort Estimation

Total effort estimation can be understood as the estimated value for total amount of resources and time required to complete a task within the project. Effort planning is the basis according to which dates are decided, costs and capacities are calculated and business cases are developed. An estimation becomes possible, through dividing the project into many different parts and work packages. The smaller the work packages are, the more precise the estimation can be. Problems arise usually through:

  • A lack of technical knowledge in people that carry out the planning
  • A difference in productivity between the project team members.
  • A disregard of costs arising from the project (e.g. costs of a project office or employee training)

Estimation methods

CPC_ Estimation methods

Analogous estimation

The work packages of the current project are compared to historical data of already completed work packages. Based on this information the effort is calculated. CPC_Analogos_method_1

Expert Judgement

Expert judgement is the most common estimation method nowadays

Single estimation Group estimation
  • Based on the own experience, one person estimates the effort of a work package
  • The accuracy of the estimated value highly depends on the experience gained by estimator as well as the complexity of the work package
  • The single estimation is subject to the single examination of one person and is not monitored
  • Several persons (usually 3 – 6) conduct a single estimation
  • The project lead consolidates all single estimation values and calculates the mean value
  • It is an option to weight the single estimated value according to the experience of the estimator

The project manager is responsible for consolidating the single estimates into one overall project plan

Delphi Method

The project manager prepares a template providing an overview of all work packages. This template serves as the basis for the expert judgement.

Each expert receives one template.

The experts estimate all work packages listed in the template. All templates are collected and evaluated by one person. The estimated values are not to be discussed.

If there is a discrepancy of >20 % between the single estimates, the estimates are commented by the project lead and he returns the templates to the experts in order to reassess the estimates

The experts review their estimates and give a new estimate considering the project lead’s comments.

Only if a consensus is found between the single estimates, an additional effort of 10-15% for project management is added and the estimation terminated.

3-point estimation

The 3-point estimation is an estimation of the effort based on a weighted average of the most likely effort, best-case effort and worst-case effort. For each work package three effort estimations are conducted:

  • Best-case effort
  • Most likely effort
  • Worst-case effort

Expected effort= (best-case+ 4*most likely+ worst-case)/6

In addition, it is possible to calculate the probability of occurrence of the estimate:

1. Calculating the standard deviation

Standard deviation= (best-case+ worst-case) / 6

2. Derive probability of occurrence

  • Estimate+ / – 1 x standard deviation= 68% probability of occurrence
  • Estimate+ / – 2 x standard deviation= 95% probability of occurrence
  • Estimate+ / – 3 x standard deviation= 98% probability of occurrence

Overview Templates

Time Schedule (pl.)

Overview Templates

Integrated Project Plan
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  • Idea into project
  • Initiation
  • Planning
    • Integration
    • Scope
    • Time
    • Human Resource
    • Supplier
    • Cost
    • Risk
    • Quality
    • Stakeholder
    • Communication
  • Execution
    • Integration
    • Scope
    • Time
    • Human Resource
    • Supplier
    • Cost
    • Risk
    • Quality
    • Stakeholder
    • Communication
  • Controlling
    • Integration
    • Scope
    • Time
    • Human Resource
    • Supplier
    • Cost
    • Risk
    • Quality
    • Stakeholder
    • Communication
    • Project Controlling
  • Closure
  • Agile
    • Scrum-Rollenmodell
    • User Stories
    • Daily Scrum
    • Quality Gates agile Methodik
  • Program Management
    • Relationship Program & Project Mgmt.
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